{ "created_by": "Chirag Mirani", "generated_at_et": "Friday, June 05, 2026 07:34 PM ET", "generated_at_iso": "2026-06-05T19:34:39.893288-04:00", "current_day": "Friday", "current_date": "June 05, 2026", "current_time": "07:34 PM ET", "next_event": { "key": "core_cpi", "label": "Core CPI", "group": "Inflation", "reporting_period": "May 2026", "release_day": "Wednesday", "release_date": "June 10, 2026", "release_time": "8:30 AM ET", "release_iso": "2026-06-10T08:30:00-04:00", "hours_until_release": 108, "schedule_source": "seeded_official_schedule", "house_forecast": "0.187% m/m | 2.80% y/y", "kalshi_consensus": "0.152% m/m | 2.89% y/y", "last_release": "April 2026: 0.376% m/m, 2.74% y/y", "risk": "elevated surprise risk", "status": "live", "notes": "Model output from core CPI workflow and surprise model.", "model_source": "macro_forecasting\\output\\core_cpi_forecast_latest.json", "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeconstatcpicore-26may", "release_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm", "consensus_review": { "required": false, "gap_value": 0.03472479046128529, "gap_display": "+0.035 pp", "threshold": 0.05, "threshold_display": "0.050 pp", "house_side": "above Kalshi" } }, "events": [ { "key": "core_cpi", "label": "Core CPI", "group": "Inflation", "reporting_period": "May 2026", "release_day": "Wednesday", "release_date": "June 10, 2026", "release_time": "8:30 AM ET", "release_iso": "2026-06-10T08:30:00-04:00", "hours_until_release": 108, "schedule_source": "seeded_official_schedule", "house_forecast": "0.187% m/m | 2.80% y/y", "kalshi_consensus": "0.152% m/m | 2.89% y/y", "last_release": "April 2026: 0.376% m/m, 2.74% y/y", "risk": "elevated surprise risk", "status": "live", "notes": "Model output from core CPI workflow and surprise model.", "model_source": "macro_forecasting\\output\\core_cpi_forecast_latest.json", "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeconstatcpicore-26may", "release_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm", "consensus_review": { "required": false, "gap_value": 0.03472479046128529, "gap_display": "+0.035 pp", "threshold": 0.05, "threshold_display": "0.050 pp", "house_side": "above Kalshi" } }, { "key": "weekly_claims", "label": "Weekly Claims", "group": "Labor", "reporting_period": "Week ending June 06, 2026", "release_day": "Thursday", "release_date": "June 11, 2026", "release_time": "8:30 AM ET", "release_iso": "2026-06-11T08:30:00-04:00", "hours_until_release": 132, "schedule_source": "weekly_rule", "house_forecast": "217,263", "kalshi_consensus": "217,900", "last_release": "Week ending May 09, 2026: 211,000", "risk": "elevated surprise risk", "status": "live", "notes": "Weekly model output with surprise-risk overlay.", "model_source": "macro_forecasting\\output\\weekly_claims_forecast_latest.json", "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjoblessclaims-26jun11", "release_source_url": "https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf", "consensus_review": { "required": false, "gap_value": -637.3032046311127, "gap_display": "-637", "threshold": 10000.0, "threshold_display": "10,000", "house_side": "below Kalshi" } }, { "key": "core_pce", "label": "Core PCE", "group": "Inflation", "reporting_period": "May 2026", "release_day": "Friday", "release_date": "June 26, 2026", "release_time": "8:30 AM ET", "release_iso": "2026-06-26T08:30:00-04:00", "hours_until_release": 492, "schedule_source": "seeded_official_schedule", "house_forecast": "0.187% m/m | 3.24% y/y", "kalshi_consensus": "0.233% m/m", "last_release": "April 2026: 0.239% m/m, 3.29% y/y", "risk": null, "status": "live", "notes": "Standard estimate from CPI/PPI bridge.", "model_source": "macro_forecasting/cpi_to_pce_bridge.py", "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpcecore-26jun", "release_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index", "consensus_review": { "required": false, "gap_value": -0.04600000000000001, "gap_display": "-0.046 pp", "threshold": 0.05, "threshold_display": "0.050 pp", "house_side": "below Kalshi" } }, { "key": "adp", "label": "ADP", "group": "Labor", "reporting_period": "June 2026", "release_day": "Wednesday", "release_date": "July 01, 2026", "release_time": "8:15 AM ET", "release_iso": "2026-07-01T08:15:00-04:00", "hours_until_release": 612, "schedule_source": "seeded_official_schedule", "house_forecast": "44k", "kalshi_consensus": "75k", "last_release": "May 2026: 122k", "risk": null, "status": "live", "notes": "Two-step recursive forecast for the May 2026 ADP release; cached in macro_forecasting\\output\\adp_forecast_latest.json. Some release-month feature inputs were imputed with training medians.", "model_source": "macro_forecasting/adp_forecast_kaggle_style.py", "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxadp-26jun", "release_source_url": "https://adpemploymentreport.com/", "consensus_review": { "required": false, "gap_value": -31.533931233869737, "gap_display": "-32k", "threshold": 35.0, "threshold_display": "35k", "house_side": "below Kalshi" } }, { "key": "nfp", "label": "NFP", "group": "Labor", "reporting_period": "June 2026", "release_day": "Thursday", "release_date": "July 02, 2026", "release_time": "8:30 AM ET", "release_iso": "2026-07-02T08:30:00-04:00", "hours_until_release": 636, "schedule_source": "seeded_official_schedule", "house_forecast": "119k", "kalshi_consensus": "104k", "last_release": "May 2026: 172k", "risk": "normal surprise risk", "status": "live", "notes": "Latest BLS actual: May 2026: 172k. NFP surprise model already uses weekly claims features, so the forecast can refresh as claims move.", "model_source": "macro_forecasting\\output\\nfp_surprise_latest.json", "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpayrolls-26jun", "release_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm", "consensus_review": { "required": false, "gap_value": 15.317665100097656, "gap_display": "+15k", "threshold": 40.0, "threshold_display": "40k", "house_side": "above Kalshi" } }, { "key": "ur", "label": "Unemployment Rate", "group": "Labor", "reporting_period": "June 2026", "release_day": "Thursday", "release_date": "July 02, 2026", "release_time": "8:30 AM ET", "release_iso": "2026-07-02T08:30:00-04:00", "hours_until_release": 636, "schedule_source": "seeded_official_schedule", "house_forecast": "4.30%", "kalshi_consensus": "4.39%", "last_release": "May 2026: 4.30%", "risk": "elevated surprise risk", "status": "review", "notes": "Latest BLS actual: May 2026: 4.30%. Rounded to the market print convention; live model also stores unrounded UR.", "model_source": "macro_forecasting\\output\\ur_surprise_latest.json", "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeconstatu3-26jun", "release_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm", "consensus_review": { "required": true, "gap_value": -0.0854406130268206, "gap_display": "-0.085 pp", "threshold": 0.05, "threshold_display": "0.050 pp", "house_side": "below Kalshi", "label": "Review required", "message": "Unemployment Rate house forecast is -0.085 pp below Kalshi; threshold is 0.050 pp. Check official guidance and news before using the forecast.", "news_query": "June 2026 jobs report BLS forecast adjustment survey", "news_search_url": "https://news.google.com/search?q=June+2026+jobs+report+BLS+forecast+adjustment+survey", "official_guidance": [ { "label": "BLS Employment Situation latest release", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm", "status": "unavailable", "hits": [] } ], "guidance_hit_count": 0, "news_headlines": [ { "title": "Signs of Life - The Economic Policy Innovation Center", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTE1XeWpfT1NZb25DdXVVY3F6aVh1aWNGdjZLc1ljcnY1VUpSLUctakpoTElJTDZlZWF2ZkhLN1YtSm1NSk5XNF9vMDdzczkwTFRCRWdDT21XR2xKMU1vX2JxZ3p2WUJHVlU?oc=5", "published": "Fri, 13 Feb 2026 08:00:00 GMT" }, { "title": "U.S. payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, more than expected; unemployment down to 4.3% - CNBC", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMib0FVX3lxTE80QmlGMzFFZjM3TDhfN2R0NkdUZkM0VGRwQjE0UG1JVTh4Rnk4Wmg2U250a3p3cUFfX3l3YjV0TXh0dFlmRWdXakdNN2tFeTduNUpnaTRoZm44cExLbmhhbnlBX0FkMU1mRnRtcGdBZ9IBdEFVX3lxTE1tOWIxV2doSWlXYnlkTWl6bVNpYVpCbDB0YURFWWlCR2ZrNUkxRXIzRHphU2MwX0RxMlQ0WnozSTFBeHF5ZzQ2Wm91OW9XRTk3dG5VNTBlWW5vbGhIRFBEb2xDTUJkT1NCVmM1Mkcydzl0Zl9C?oc=5", "published": "Wed, 11 Feb 2026 08:00:00 GMT" }, { "title": "BLS Jobs Report Is Broken. Is There A Better Measure? - RIA - Real Investment Advice", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQLWZKLVlsV2xxOWpHRE9ULVhoNEVZMDgtQlpaTnlaSWhmMFlybHhUT1hBNU45OHhWcUwzd1NBM245aWNCOHVhUXg2RUdJUUpWdjMyeWJJdVJzYlpUa1Z1NzBlaWVPc2o0TmlSZ1RtWC1Xc3pNMHVtVjZUZmV5QmVLWUEycVIzbDIzLVNwS3dLanBZUzd1aGI1amFSdzFzLVNiRGc?oc=5", "published": "Fri, 17 Apr 2026 07:00:00 GMT" }, { "title": "Slower US job growth expected in December; unemployment rate likely dipped - Reuters", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxOTGVQRms2YjZFbWdySmpwbjBpRVc3ZTBZMHgwSmhsYVlsZHlzc3NjVnBOczUxR0gzbmhkVkx3MXFHZ25PMWI3OTkwNHBkVV9iUUVrbGludGd2eDJkODJ6aUV2UnN1aWowZlRiVjd6c1gwMmU5WGRMSEJVQXZCYU54NTRaRDlGNU1ueUdnZDhmQ0xBMUhnUHZlVWZ4OEpQQThCc2MyWHRaZ2F6b1R4UkZmenBjenYyZw?oc=5", "published": "Fri, 09 Jan 2026 08:00:00 GMT" } ] } } ], "summary": { "event_count": 6, "live_count": 5, "partial_count": 0, "review_count": 1 } }