{
  "snapshots": [
    {
      "id": "weekly_claims_2026-06-11",
      "release_key": "weekly_claims",
      "release_label": "Weekly Claims",
      "release_group": "Labor",
      "target_period": "Week ending June 06, 2026",
      "release_iso": "2026-06-11T08:30:00-04:00",
      "snapshot_at_utc": "2026-06-05T17:26:46.765920+00:00",
      "house_raw": "217,263",
      "house_value": 217263.0,
      "kalshi_raw": "217,950",
      "kalshi_value": 217950.0,
      "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjoblessclaims-26jun11",
      "release_source_url": "https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf",
      "fred_series": "ICSA",
      "unit": "claims",
      "actual_value": null,
      "house_error_abs": null,
      "kalshi_error_abs": null,
      "winner": null,
      "settled_at_utc": null,
      "actual_consensus_side": null,
      "house_consensus_side": null,
      "house_direction_correct": null,
      "release_date_pretty": "Jun 11, 2026",
      "house_display": "217,263",
      "kalshi_display": "217,950",
      "actual_display": null,
      "house_error_display": null,
      "kalshi_error_display": null,
      "actual_consensus_side_display": null,
      "house_consensus_side_display": null
    },
    {
      "id": "core_cpi_2026-06-10",
      "release_key": "core_cpi",
      "release_label": "Core CPI",
      "release_group": "Inflation",
      "target_period": "May 2026",
      "release_iso": "2026-06-10T08:30:00-04:00",
      "snapshot_at_utc": "2026-06-05T17:26:46.765920+00:00",
      "house_raw": "0.187% m/m | 2.80% y/y",
      "house_value": 0.187,
      "kalshi_raw": "0.216% m/m | 2.86% y/y",
      "kalshi_value": 0.216,
      "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeconstatcpicore-26may",
      "release_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm",
      "fred_series": "CPILFESL",
      "unit": "% m/m",
      "actual_value": null,
      "house_error_abs": null,
      "kalshi_error_abs": null,
      "winner": null,
      "settled_at_utc": null,
      "actual_consensus_side": null,
      "house_consensus_side": null,
      "house_direction_correct": null,
      "release_date_pretty": "Jun 10, 2026",
      "house_display": "0.187% m/m | 2.80% y/y",
      "kalshi_display": "0.216% m/m | 2.86% y/y",
      "actual_display": null,
      "house_error_display": null,
      "kalshi_error_display": null,
      "actual_consensus_side_display": null,
      "house_consensus_side_display": null
    },
    {
      "id": "core_pce_2026-05-28",
      "release_key": "core_pce",
      "release_label": "Core PCE",
      "release_group": "Inflation",
      "target_period": "April 2026",
      "release_iso": "2026-05-28T08:30:00-04:00",
      "snapshot_at_utc": "2026-05-14T18:11:31.929225+00:00",
      "house_raw": "0.187% m/m | 3.20% y/y",
      "house_value": 0.187,
      "kalshi_raw": "0.215% m/m",
      "kalshi_value": 0.215,
      "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpcecore-26may",
      "release_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index",
      "fred_series": "PCEPILFE",
      "unit": "% m/m",
      "actual_value": 0.23894031131834748,
      "house_error_abs": 0.051940311318347476,
      "kalshi_error_abs": 0.02394031131834748,
      "winner": "kalshi",
      "settled_at_utc": "2026-06-05T17:26:46.916919+00:00",
      "actual_consensus_side": "above",
      "house_consensus_side": "below",
      "house_direction_correct": 0,
      "release_date_pretty": "May 28, 2026",
      "house_display": "0.187% m/m | 3.20% y/y",
      "kalshi_display": "0.215% m/m",
      "actual_display": "0.239% m/m",
      "house_error_display": "0.052 pp",
      "kalshi_error_display": "0.024 pp",
      "actual_consensus_side_display": "above consensus",
      "house_consensus_side_display": "below consensus"
    },
    {
      "id": "weekly_claims_2026-05-21",
      "release_key": "weekly_claims",
      "release_label": "Weekly Claims",
      "release_group": "Labor",
      "target_period": "Week ending May 16, 2026",
      "release_iso": "2026-05-21T08:30:00-04:00",
      "snapshot_at_utc": "2026-05-14T18:11:31.929225+00:00",
      "house_raw": "212,352",
      "house_value": 212352.0,
      "kalshi_raw": "210,400",
      "kalshi_value": 210400.0,
      "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjoblessclaims-26may21",
      "release_source_url": "https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf",
      "fred_series": "ICSA",
      "unit": "claims",
      "actual_value": null,
      "house_error_abs": null,
      "kalshi_error_abs": null,
      "winner": null,
      "settled_at_utc": null,
      "actual_consensus_side": null,
      "house_consensus_side": null,
      "house_direction_correct": null,
      "release_date_pretty": "May 21, 2026",
      "house_display": "212,352",
      "kalshi_display": "210,400",
      "actual_display": null,
      "house_error_display": null,
      "kalshi_error_display": null,
      "actual_consensus_side_display": null,
      "house_consensus_side_display": null
    },
    {
      "id": "weekly_claims_2026-05-14",
      "release_key": "weekly_claims",
      "release_label": "Weekly Claims",
      "release_group": "Labor",
      "target_period": "Week ending May 09, 2026",
      "release_iso": "2026-05-14T08:30:00-04:00",
      "snapshot_at_utc": "2026-05-08T12:48:50.474803+00:00",
      "house_raw": "211,469",
      "house_value": 211469.0,
      "kalshi_raw": "205,825",
      "kalshi_value": 205825.0,
      "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjoblessclaims-26may14",
      "release_source_url": "https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf",
      "fred_series": "ICSA",
      "unit": "claims",
      "actual_value": 211000.0,
      "house_error_abs": 469.0,
      "kalshi_error_abs": 5175.0,
      "winner": "house",
      "settled_at_utc": "2026-05-14T18:11:32.135180+00:00",
      "actual_consensus_side": "above",
      "house_consensus_side": "above",
      "house_direction_correct": 1,
      "release_date_pretty": "May 14, 2026",
      "house_display": "211,469",
      "kalshi_display": "205,825",
      "actual_display": "211,000",
      "house_error_display": "469",
      "kalshi_error_display": "5,175",
      "actual_consensus_side_display": "above consensus",
      "house_consensus_side_display": "above consensus"
    },
    {
      "id": "core_cpi_2026-05-12",
      "release_key": "core_cpi",
      "release_label": "Core CPI",
      "release_group": "Inflation",
      "target_period": "April 2026",
      "release_iso": "2026-05-12T08:30:00-04:00",
      "snapshot_at_utc": "2026-04-30T12:50:32.960945+00:00",
      "house_raw": "0.188% m/m | 2.55% y/y",
      "house_value": 0.188,
      "kalshi_raw": "0.364% m/m | 2.65% y/y",
      "kalshi_value": 0.364,
      "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeconstatcpicore-26apr",
      "release_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm",
      "fred_series": "CPILFESL",
      "unit": "% m/m",
      "actual_value": 0.376460730477457,
      "house_error_abs": 0.18846073047745698,
      "kalshi_error_abs": 0.012460730477456994,
      "winner": "kalshi",
      "settled_at_utc": "2026-05-12T12:44:23.639332+00:00",
      "actual_consensus_side": "above",
      "house_consensus_side": "below",
      "house_direction_correct": 0,
      "release_date_pretty": "May 12, 2026",
      "house_display": "0.188% m/m | 2.55% y/y",
      "kalshi_display": "0.364% m/m | 2.65% y/y",
      "actual_display": "0.376% m/m",
      "house_error_display": "0.188 pp",
      "kalshi_error_display": "0.012 pp",
      "actual_consensus_side_display": "above consensus",
      "house_consensus_side_display": "below consensus"
    },
    {
      "id": "nfp_2026-05-08",
      "release_key": "nfp",
      "release_label": "NFP",
      "release_group": "Labor",
      "target_period": "April 2026",
      "release_iso": "2026-05-08T08:30:00-04:00",
      "snapshot_at_utc": "2026-04-30T12:50:32.960945+00:00",
      "house_raw": "155k",
      "house_value": 155.0,
      "kalshi_raw": "60k",
      "kalshi_value": 60.0,
      "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpayrolls-26apr",
      "release_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
      "fred_series": "PAYEMS",
      "unit": "k jobs",
      "actual_value": 115.0,
      "house_error_abs": 40.0,
      "kalshi_error_abs": 55.0,
      "winner": "house",
      "settled_at_utc": "2026-05-08T13:34:32.398739+00:00",
      "actual_consensus_side": "above",
      "house_consensus_side": "above",
      "house_direction_correct": 1,
      "release_date_pretty": "May 08, 2026",
      "house_display": "155k",
      "kalshi_display": "60k",
      "actual_display": "115k",
      "house_error_display": "40k",
      "kalshi_error_display": "55k",
      "actual_consensus_side_display": "above consensus",
      "house_consensus_side_display": "above consensus"
    },
    {
      "id": "ur_2026-05-08",
      "release_key": "ur",
      "release_label": "Unemployment Rate",
      "release_group": "Labor",
      "target_period": "April 2026",
      "release_iso": "2026-05-08T08:30:00-04:00",
      "snapshot_at_utc": "2026-04-30T12:50:32.960945+00:00",
      "house_raw": "4.30%",
      "house_value": 4.3,
      "kalshi_raw": "4.35%",
      "kalshi_value": 4.35,
      "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeconstatu3-26apr",
      "release_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
      "fred_series": "UNRATE",
      "unit": "% UR",
      "actual_value": 4.3,
      "house_error_abs": 0.0,
      "kalshi_error_abs": 0.04999999999999982,
      "winner": "house",
      "settled_at_utc": "2026-05-08T12:48:50.610957+00:00",
      "actual_consensus_side": "below",
      "house_consensus_side": "below",
      "house_direction_correct": 1,
      "release_date_pretty": "May 08, 2026",
      "house_display": "4.30%",
      "kalshi_display": "4.35%",
      "actual_display": "4.30%",
      "house_error_display": "0.000 pp",
      "kalshi_error_display": "0.050 pp",
      "actual_consensus_side_display": "below consensus",
      "house_consensus_side_display": "below consensus"
    },
    {
      "id": "weekly_claims_2026-05-07",
      "release_key": "weekly_claims",
      "release_label": "Weekly Claims",
      "release_group": "Labor",
      "target_period": "Week ending May 02, 2026",
      "release_iso": "2026-05-07T08:30:00-04:00",
      "snapshot_at_utc": "2026-04-30T12:50:32.960945+00:00",
      "house_raw": "213,095",
      "house_value": 213095.0,
      "kalshi_raw": "no live Kalshi market found",
      "kalshi_value": null,
      "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjoblessclaims-26may01",
      "release_source_url": "https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf",
      "fred_series": "ICSA",
      "unit": "claims",
      "actual_value": 200000.0,
      "house_error_abs": 13095.0,
      "kalshi_error_abs": null,
      "winner": null,
      "settled_at_utc": "2026-05-08T12:48:50.610957+00:00",
      "actual_consensus_side": null,
      "house_consensus_side": null,
      "house_direction_correct": null,
      "release_date_pretty": "May 07, 2026",
      "house_display": "213,095",
      "kalshi_display": "no live Kalshi market found",
      "actual_display": "200,000",
      "house_error_display": "13,095",
      "kalshi_error_display": null,
      "actual_consensus_side_display": null,
      "house_consensus_side_display": null
    },
    {
      "id": "adp_2026-05-06",
      "release_key": "adp",
      "release_label": "ADP",
      "release_group": "Labor",
      "target_period": "April 2026",
      "release_iso": "2026-05-06T08:15:00-04:00",
      "snapshot_at_utc": "2026-04-30T12:50:32.960945+00:00",
      "house_raw": "46k",
      "house_value": 46.0,
      "kalshi_raw": "91k",
      "kalshi_value": 91.0,
      "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxadp-26apr",
      "release_source_url": "https://adpemploymentreport.com/",
      "fred_series": "ADPMNUSNERSA",
      "unit": "k jobs",
      "actual_value": 109.0,
      "house_error_abs": 63.0,
      "kalshi_error_abs": 18.0,
      "winner": "kalshi",
      "settled_at_utc": "2026-05-08T12:48:50.610957+00:00",
      "actual_consensus_side": "above",
      "house_consensus_side": "below",
      "house_direction_correct": 0,
      "release_date_pretty": "May 06, 2026",
      "house_display": "46k",
      "kalshi_display": "91k",
      "actual_display": "109k",
      "house_error_display": "63k",
      "kalshi_error_display": "18k",
      "actual_consensus_side_display": "above consensus",
      "house_consensus_side_display": "below consensus"
    },
    {
      "id": "core_pce_2026-04-30",
      "release_key": "core_pce",
      "release_label": "Core PCE",
      "release_group": "Inflation",
      "target_period": "March 2026",
      "release_iso": "2026-04-30T08:30:00-04:00",
      "snapshot_at_utc": "2026-04-19T18:52:35.339884+00:00",
      "house_raw": "0.305% m/m",
      "house_value": 0.305,
      "kalshi_raw": "0.265% m/m",
      "kalshi_value": 0.265,
      "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpcecore-26apr",
      "release_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index",
      "fred_series": "PCEPILFE",
      "unit": "% m/m",
      "actual_value": 0.2932483068401215,
      "house_error_abs": 0.011751693159878507,
      "kalshi_error_abs": 0.028248306840121473,
      "winner": "house",
      "settled_at_utc": "2026-04-30T12:50:33.007773+00:00",
      "actual_consensus_side": "above",
      "house_consensus_side": "above",
      "house_direction_correct": 1,
      "release_date_pretty": "Apr 30, 2026",
      "house_display": "0.305% m/m",
      "kalshi_display": "0.265% m/m",
      "actual_display": "0.293% m/m",
      "house_error_display": "0.012 pp",
      "kalshi_error_display": "0.028 pp",
      "actual_consensus_side_display": "above consensus",
      "house_consensus_side_display": "above consensus"
    },
    {
      "id": "weekly_claims_2026-04-23",
      "release_key": "weekly_claims",
      "release_label": "Weekly Claims",
      "release_group": "Labor",
      "target_period": "Week ending April 18, 2026",
      "release_iso": "2026-04-23T08:30:00-04:00",
      "snapshot_at_utc": "2026-04-19T18:52:35.339884+00:00",
      "house_raw": "211,999",
      "house_value": 211999.0,
      "kalshi_raw": "210,325",
      "kalshi_value": 210325.0,
      "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjoblessclaims-26apr23",
      "release_source_url": "https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf",
      "fred_series": "ICSA",
      "unit": "claims",
      "actual_value": 215000.0,
      "house_error_abs": 3001.0,
      "kalshi_error_abs": 4675.0,
      "winner": "house",
      "settled_at_utc": "2026-04-30T12:50:33.007773+00:00",
      "actual_consensus_side": "above",
      "house_consensus_side": "above",
      "house_direction_correct": 1,
      "release_date_pretty": "Apr 23, 2026",
      "house_display": "211,999",
      "kalshi_display": "210,325",
      "actual_display": "215,000",
      "house_error_display": "3,001",
      "kalshi_error_display": "4,675",
      "actual_consensus_side_display": "above consensus",
      "house_consensus_side_display": "above consensus"
    }
  ],
  "summary": {
    "total_snapshots": 12,
    "settled_count": 9,
    "pending_count": 3,
    "house_wins": 5,
    "kalshi_wins": 3,
    "ties": 0,
    "house_direction_hits": 5,
    "house_direction_misses": 3,
    "house_direction_call_count": 8,
    "house_direction_hit_rate": 0.625,
    "house_mean_abs_error": 1852.0280169705507,
    "kalshi_mean_abs_error": 1240.3893311685795
  },
  "last_updated_utc": "2026-06-05T23:36:34.037418+00:00"
}