{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "page_updated_at_utc": "2026-11-07T21:22:49.796018+00:00",
  "checked_at_utc": "2026-11-07T20:48:23.678982+00:00",
  "kind": "issued_forecast",
  "issued_at_utc": "2026-11-07T20:48:18.309499+00:00",
  "signal_generated_as_of_utc": "2026-11-07T20:48:18.309499+00:00",
  "reference_period_ended": false,
  "model": "weekly-14-quarterly-tips-2026-11-07-v5",
  "reading": {
    "reference_friday": "2026-11-06",
    "target_end": "2026-11-13",
    "checklist_score": -2,
    "prob_yield_down_uncalibrated": 0.5664917860183382,
    "position": 0,
    "answers": {
      "us_eq": 1,
      "em_eq": 1,
      "oil": -1,
      "usd": -1,
      "vix": 1,
      "slack": 1,
      "pce": -1,
      "real": 1,
      "curve": -1,
      "de10": -1,
      "jp10": -1,
      "uk10": -1,
      "dec": 0,
      "tips_30": 0
    },
    "votes_add": 5,
    "votes_reduce": 7,
    "votes_neutral": 2,
    "view": "Neutral"
  },
  "requested_reference_friday": "2026-11-06",
  "requested_reference_status": "issued",
  "publisher_sources": [
    {
      "series": "DGS10",
      "observation_date": "2026-11-06",
      "value": 4.86,
      "publisher_field": "10 Yr",
      "overlap_check": {
        "observations": 20,
        "first": "2026-10-08",
        "last": "2026-11-05",
        "max_absolute_difference": 0.0
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?_format=csv&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page=&type=daily_treasury_yield_curve",
          "retrieved_at_utc": "2026-11-07T20:47:41.394428+00:00",
          "raw_sha256": "a2c61c27a95c6a45ceac850ce9e5ed00903bed1b9ac43732c027c15d94e657da"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "series": "DGS2",
      "observation_date": "2026-11-06",
      "value": 4.51,
      "publisher_field": "2 Yr",
      "overlap_check": {
        "observations": 20,
        "first": "2026-10-08",
        "last": "2026-11-05",
        "max_absolute_difference": 0.0
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?_format=csv&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page=&type=daily_treasury_yield_curve",
          "retrieved_at_utc": "2026-11-07T20:47:41.394428+00:00",
          "raw_sha256": "a2c61c27a95c6a45ceac850ce9e5ed00903bed1b9ac43732c027c15d94e657da"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "series": "VIXCLS",
      "observation_date": "2026-11-06",
      "value": 25.64,
      "publisher_field": "CLOSE",
      "overlap_check": {
        "observations": 20,
        "first": "2026-10-09",
        "last": "2026-11-05",
        "max_absolute_difference": 0.0
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://cdn-api.cboe.com/api/global/us_indices/daily_prices/VIX_History.csv",
          "retrieved_at_utc": "2026-11-07T20:47:41.765396+00:00",
          "raw_sha256": "7e647d50a872b4aa64deaef1dfd17b0e1e3b88887cedc4c1fa861d242ecb7383"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "refresh_note": null,
  "last_refresh_attempt_at_utc": "2026-11-07T20:48:23.678982+00:00",
  "interpretation": "Published weekly signal; assess against your macro view and risk budget.",
  "forecast_horizon": "Duration view one week ahead, from the reference Friday to the following Friday; visiting on another day does not change the horizon.",
  "prospective": {
    "issued": 1,
    "completed": 0,
    "active_completed": 0,
    "hit_rate": null,
    "total_gross_yield_score_bp": null,
    "measurement": "Signed DGS10 yield change, before costs; not an investment return."
  },
  "links": {
    "tool": "https://chiragmirani.github.io/treasury-signal/",
    "paper": "https://chiragmirani.github.io/treasury-signal/paper/",
    "history": "https://chiragmirani.github.io/treasury-signal/data/weekly-history.csv"
  },
  "display": {
    "combined_result": "Neutral",
    "horizon": "One-week-ahead outlook for the 10-year Treasury yield",
    "signal_generated_as_of": "November 7, 2026, 03:48:18 PM EST",
    "model_1": {
      "name": "Checklist",
      "direction": "Bearish Duration",
      "score": -2
    },
    "model_2": {
      "name": "Logistic regression",
      "direction": "Bullish Duration",
      "prob_yield_down_uncalibrated": 0.5664917860183382
    }
  }
}