SIGN INTERPRETATION CORRECTION - November 7, 2026

After the first watchlist was written, the author challenged the natural-gas
direction: why would an energy price rise argue for adding duration?

An independent reconstruction from DHHNGSP and DGS10 files confirmed the sign
arithmetic and target alignment. For each Friday t, gas is observed no later
than t-7 days and compared with its similarly delayed value four Fridays ago.
The target is 100*(10-year yield at t+7 days - yield at t). Positive position
times a yield FALL is a positive historical score.

In the 43-week 2026 sample, the 19 positive gas readings preceded a mean yield
change of -1.3684 bp; the 23 negative readings preceded +4.5652 bp. One unchanged
gas reading preceded -4 bp. The selected gas direction's timing scores were
-85.7 bp in 2023 and -148.9 bp in 2024, versus +124.0 bp in partial 2026.
Within July-October 2026, positive gas readings preceded +1.625 bp on average.

The earlier add/reduce wording was too prescriptive for this evidence. Ranking
on a demeaned timing score rewards a RELATIVE association. Both conditional
mean yield changes may be positive. In 2026, after positive oil, dollar and
German-yield readings, the following week's mean yield changes were +0.3333,
+0.1364 and +0.4231 bp. These are rises, despite the original selected 'add' label.

The manuscript and reader-facing findings now report descriptive outcomes and
counts. No live action is assigned to these five research observations. Audit
files retain their original selected position conventions so earlier calculations
remain reproducible; their usage_status labels explain the limitation.
The original protocol and all directions remain visible. No rank or numerical
score was changed to make the sign agree with an economic story. Natural gas
is not part of the frozen thirteen-rule model, which remains unchanged.

Subsequent update: the economic review keeps a priced-in or overshot response
as a plausible reversal hypothesis and supplies descriptive follow-up checks.
It does not establish the mechanism. An unrelated curve arithmetic correction
is included in model version v2; the main economic directions are unchanged.
See economic_review/RULE_INTERPRETATIONS.txt and curve_roundoff_correction.json.

Economic interpretation: an energy-price increase that raises persistent
inflation expectations is a reason to consider higher nominal yields and less
duration, all else equal. A gas-price move alone is not a measure of broad
inflation: weather, production, storage and trade can matter. No causal mechanism
for the selected 2026 gas sign has been established.
Source: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/factors-affecting-natural-gas-prices.php
