Created by Chirag Mirani · Updated Friday, August 14, 2026 01:57 PM ET

Macro Forecast Schedule

Upcoming US macroeconomic data releases with house forecasts, live Kalshi consensus, latest actual values, and surprise-risk labels.
Release Reporting period Releases House forecast Kalshi consensus Latest actual Surprise risk Status
Weekly Claims Labor Week ending August 15, 2026 Thursday, August 20, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 209,737 212,962 Week ending Jul 04, 2026: 215,000 elevated surprise risk live
Weekly model output with surprise-risk overlay. Source: macro_forecasting/output/weekly_claims_forecast_latest.json Schedule: weekly_rule
Core CPI Inflation September 2026 Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET n/a 0.270% m/m | 2.50% y/y July 2026: 0.215% m/m, 2.47% y/y elevated surprise risk live
House forecast pending until the Core CPI model refreshes for this release month. Source: macro_forecasting/output/core_cpi_forecast_latest.json Schedule: fallback_schedule
Core PCE Inflation September 2026 Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 0.360% m/m | 3.40% y/y 0.199% m/m June 2026: 0.132% m/m, 3.29% y/y n/a review
Standard estimate from CPI/PPI bridge. Core PCE house forecast is +0.161 pp above Kalshi; threshold is 0.050 pp. Check official guidance and news before using the forecast. BEA PCE latest release: price index News search: September 2026 core PCE forecast BEA adjustment inflation Source: macro_forecasting/cpi_to_pce_bridge.py Schedule: fallback_schedule
ADP Labor September 2026 Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 8:15 AM ET 60k 49k June 2026: 98k n/a live
Two-step recursive forecast for the August 2026 ADP release; cached in macro_forecasting/output/adp_forecast_latest.json. Some release-month feature inputs were imputed with training medians. Source: macro_forecasting/adp_forecast_kaggle_style.py Schedule: fallback_schedule
NFP Labor September 2026 Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 69k 55k July 2026: -23k elevated surprise risk live
Latest BLS actual: July 2026: -23k. NFP surprise model already uses weekly claims features, so the forecast can refresh as claims move. Source: macro_forecasting/output/nfp_surprise_latest.json Schedule: fallback_schedule
Unemployment Rate Labor September 2026 Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 4.10% 4.22% July 2026: 4.10% elevated surprise risk review
Latest BLS actual: July 2026: 4.10%. Rounded to the market print convention; live model also stores unrounded UR. Unemployment Rate house forecast is -0.117 pp below Kalshi; threshold is 0.050 pp. Check official guidance and news before using the forecast. BLS Employment Situation latest release News search: September 2026 jobs report BLS forecast adjustment survey Source: macro_forecasting/output/ur_surprise_latest.json Schedule: fallback_schedule