Created by Chirag Mirani · Updated Thursday, October 01, 2026 05:45 PM ET

Macro Forecast Schedule

Upcoming US macroeconomic data releases with house forecasts, live Kalshi consensus, latest actual values, and surprise-risk labels.
Release Reporting period Releases House forecast Kalshi consensus Latest actual Surprise risk Status
Weekly Claims Labor Week ending October 03, 2026 Thursday, October 08, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 203,368 199,325 Week ending Jul 04, 2026: 215,000 normal surprise risk live
Weekly model output with surprise-risk overlay. Source: macro_forecasting/output/weekly_claims_forecast_latest.json Schedule: weekly_rule
Core CPI Inflation October 2026 Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET n/a 0.181% m/m June 2026: -0.017% m/m, 2.57% y/y elevated surprise risk live
House forecast pending until the Core CPI model refreshes for this release month. Source: macro_forecasting/output/core_cpi_forecast_latest.json Schedule: fallback_schedule
Core PCE Inflation October 2026 Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 0.267% m/m | 3.39% y/y 0.207% m/m August 2026: 0.247% m/m, 3.01% y/y n/a review
Standard estimate from CPI/PPI bridge. Core PCE house forecast is +0.060 pp above Kalshi; threshold is 0.050 pp. Check official guidance and news before using the forecast. BEA PCE latest release: price index News search: October 2026 core PCE forecast BEA adjustment inflation Source: macro_forecasting/cpi_to_pce_bridge.py Schedule: fallback_schedule
ADP Labor October 2026 Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 8:15 AM ET 35k 52k June 2026: 98k n/a live
Two-step recursive forecast for the September 2026 ADP release; cached in macro_forecasting/output/adp_forecast_latest.json. Some release-month feature inputs were imputed with training medians. Source: macro_forecasting/adp_forecast_kaggle_style.py Schedule: fallback_schedule
NFP Labor October 2026 Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 83k 62k June 2026: 57k elevated surprise risk live
Latest BLS actual: June 2026: 57k. NFP surprise model already uses weekly claims features, so the forecast can refresh as claims move. Source: macro_forecasting/output/nfp_surprise_latest.json Schedule: fallback_schedule
Unemployment Rate Labor October 2026 Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 4.10% 4.31% June 2026: 4.20% elevated surprise risk review
Latest BLS actual: June 2026: 4.20%. Rounded to the market print convention; live model also stores unrounded UR. Unemployment Rate house forecast is -0.214 pp below Kalshi; threshold is 0.050 pp. Check official guidance and news before using the forecast. BLS Employment Situation latest release News search: October 2026 jobs report BLS forecast adjustment survey Source: macro_forecasting/output/ur_surprise_latest.json Schedule: fallback_schedule