Created by Chirag Mirani · Updated Thursday, June 25, 2026 07:59 AM ET

Macro Forecast Schedule

Upcoming US macroeconomic data releases with house forecasts, live Kalshi consensus, latest actual values, and surprise-risk labels.
Release Reporting period Releases House forecast Kalshi consensus Latest actual Surprise risk Status
Weekly Claims Labor Week ending June 20, 2026 Thursday, June 25, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 225,130 no live Kalshi market found Week ending Jun 13, 2026: 226,000 high live
Weekly model output with surprise-risk overlay. Source: macro_forecasting/output/weekly_claims_forecast_latest.json Schedule: weekly_rule
Core PCE Inflation May 2026 Friday, June 26, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 0.352% m/m | 3.42% y/y 0.355% m/m April 2026: 0.239% m/m, 3.29% y/y n/a live
Standard estimate from CPI/PPI bridge. Source: macro_forecasting/cpi_to_pce_bridge.py Schedule: seeded_official_schedule
ADP Labor June 2026 Wednesday, July 01, 2026 · 8:15 AM ET 200k 85k May 2026: 122k n/a review
Two-step recursive forecast for the June 2026 ADP release; cached in macro_forecasting/output/adp_forecast_latest.json. ADP house forecast is +115k above Kalshi; threshold is 35k. Check official guidance and news before using the forecast. News search: June 2026 macro data forecast adjustment Source: macro_forecasting/adp_forecast_kaggle_style.py Schedule: seeded_official_schedule
NFP Labor June 2026 Thursday, July 02, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 93k 170k May 2026: 172k normal surprise risk review
Latest BLS actual: May 2026: 172k. NFP surprise model already uses weekly claims features, so the forecast can refresh as claims move. NFP house forecast is -76k below Kalshi; threshold is 40k. Check official guidance and news before using the forecast. BLS Employment Situation latest release News search: June 2026 jobs report BLS forecast adjustment survey Source: macro_forecasting/output/nfp_surprise_latest.json Schedule: seeded_official_schedule
Unemployment Rate Labor June 2026 Thursday, July 02, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 4.30% 4.45% May 2026: 4.30% elevated surprise risk review
Latest BLS actual: May 2026: 4.30%. Rounded to the market print convention; live model also stores unrounded UR. Unemployment Rate house forecast is -0.146 pp below Kalshi; threshold is 0.050 pp. Check official guidance and news before using the forecast. BLS Employment Situation latest release News search: June 2026 jobs report BLS forecast adjustment survey Source: macro_forecasting/output/ur_surprise_latest.json Schedule: seeded_official_schedule
Core CPI Inflation June 2026 Wednesday, July 15, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 0.221% m/m | 2.81% y/y 0.182% m/m | 3.56% y/y May 2026: 0.208% m/m, 2.82% y/y elevated surprise risk live
Model output from core CPI workflow and surprise model. Source: macro_forecasting/output/core_cpi_forecast_latest.json Schedule: seeded_official_schedule