Created by Chirag Mirani · Updated Friday, April 24, 2026 01:27 PM ET

Macro Forecast Schedule

Upcoming US macroeconomic data releases with house forecasts, live Kalshi consensus, last release values, and surprise-risk labels.
Release Reporting period Releases House forecast Kalshi consensus Last release Surprise risk Status
Core PCE Inflation March 2026 Thursday, April 30, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 0.305% m/m 0.269% m/m February 2026: 0.367% m/m, 2.97% y/y n/a live
Standard estimate from CPI/PPI bridge. Local repo does not yet write macro_forecasting/output/core_pce_bridge_latest.json, so this refresh falls back to existing bridge artifacts. Source: macro_forecasting/cpi_to_pce_bridge.py Schedule: seeded_official_schedule
Weekly Claims Labor Week ending April 25, 2026 Thursday, April 30, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 211,999 212,800 Week ending Apr 11, 2026: 207,000 normal surprise risk live
Weekly model output with surprise-risk overlay. Source: macro_forecasting/output/weekly_claims_forecast_latest.json Schedule: weekly_rule
ADP Labor April 2026 Wednesday, May 06, 2026 · 8:15 AM ET 46k 87k March 2026: 62k n/a live
Two-step recursive forecast for the April 2026 ADP release; cached in macro_forecasting/output/adp_forecast_latest.json. Source: macro_forecasting/adp_forecast_kaggle_style.py Schedule: seeded_official_schedule
NFP Labor April 2026 Friday, May 08, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 155k 72k March 2026: 178k high live
NFP surprise model already uses weekly claims features, so the forecast can refresh as claims move. Source: macro_forecasting/output/nfp_surprise_latest.json Schedule: seeded_official_schedule
Unemployment Rate Labor April 2026 Friday, May 08, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 4.30% 4.36% March 2026: 4.30% elevated surprise risk live
Rounded to the market print convention; live model also stores unrounded UR. Source: macro_forecasting/output/ur_surprise_latest.json Schedule: seeded_official_schedule
Core CPI Inflation April 2026 Tuesday, May 12, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET 0.188% m/m | 2.55% y/y 0.355% m/m | 2.71% y/y March 2026: 0.196% m/m, 2.67% y/y elevated surprise risk live
Model output from core CPI workflow and surprise model. Source: macro_forecasting/output/core_cpi_forecast_latest.json Schedule: seeded_official_schedule