Created by Chirag Mirani · Updated 2026-06-25 17:57:14 UTC
Track record
House forecasts vs Kalshi consensus, settled against the actual print. Snapshots start June 25, 2026. No historical backfill. No cherry-picking.
Settled / Pending
12 / 6
House wins
5
vs Kalshi 6 (ties 0)
Surprise-side hits
6 / 11
55% hit rate
House mean abs error
2646.439
Kalshi mean abs error
2033.920
| Release | For | Released | House | Kalshi | Actual | Surprise side | House err | Kalshi err | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFPLabor | June 2026 | Jul 02, 2026 | 93k | 105k | pending | — | — | — | — |
| Unemployment RateLabor | June 2026 | Jul 02, 2026 | 4.30% | 4.38% | pending | — | — | — | — |
| Weekly ClaimsLabor | Week ending June 27, 2026 | Jul 02, 2026 | 225,130 | 222,500 | pending | — | — | — | — |
| ADPLabor | June 2026 | Jul 01, 2026 | 200k | 77k | pending | — | — | — | — |
| Core PCEInflation | May 2026 | Jun 26, 2026 | 0.352% m/m | 3.42% y/y | 0.237% m/m | pending | — | — | — | — |
| Weekly ClaimsLabor | Week ending June 20, 2026 | Jun 25, 2026 | 225,130 | 220,975 | pending | — | — | — | — |
| Weekly ClaimsLabor | Week ending June 06, 2026 | Jun 11, 2026 | 217,263 | 217,950 | 230,000 | MissHouse below consensus; actual above consensus | 12,737 | 12,050 | Kalshi |
| Core CPIInflation | May 2026 | Jun 10, 2026 | 0.187% m/m | 2.80% y/y | 0.216% m/m | 2.86% y/y | 0.208% m/m | HitHouse below consensus; actual below consensus | 0.021 pp | 0.008 pp | Kalshi |
| Core PCEInflation | April 2026 | May 28, 2026 | 0.187% m/m | 3.20% y/y | 0.215% m/m | 0.239% m/m | MissHouse below consensus; actual above consensus | 0.052 pp | 0.024 pp | Kalshi |
| Weekly ClaimsLabor | Week ending May 16, 2026 | May 21, 2026 | 212,352 | 210,400 | 210,000 | MissHouse above consensus; actual below consensus | 2,352 | 400 | Kalshi |
| Weekly ClaimsLabor | Week ending May 09, 2026 | May 14, 2026 | 211,469 | 205,825 | 211,000 | HitHouse above consensus; actual above consensus | 469 | 5,175 | House |
| Core CPIInflation | April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | 0.188% m/m | 2.55% y/y | 0.364% m/m | 2.65% y/y | 0.376% m/m | MissHouse below consensus; actual above consensus | 0.188 pp | 0.012 pp | Kalshi |
| NFPLabor | April 2026 | May 08, 2026 | 155k | 60k | 115k | HitHouse above consensus; actual above consensus | 40k | 55k | House |
| Unemployment RateLabor | April 2026 | May 08, 2026 | 4.30% | 4.35% | 4.30% | HitHouse below consensus; actual below consensus | 0.000 pp | 0.050 pp | House |
| Weekly ClaimsLabor | Week ending May 02, 2026 | May 07, 2026 | 213,095 | no live Kalshi market found | 200,000 | — | 13,095 | — | — |
| ADPLabor | April 2026 | May 06, 2026 | 46k | 91k | 109k | MissHouse below consensus; actual above consensus | 63k | 18k | Kalshi |
| Core PCEInflation | March 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | 0.305% m/m | 0.265% m/m | 0.293% m/m | HitHouse above consensus; actual above consensus | 0.012 pp | 0.028 pp | House |
| Weekly ClaimsLabor | Week ending April 18, 2026 | Apr 23, 2026 | 211,999 | 210,325 | 215,000 | HitHouse above consensus; actual above consensus | 3,001 | 4,675 | House |