Created by Chirag Mirani · Updated 2026-04-24 17:35:48 UTC
Track record
House forecasts vs Kalshi consensus, settled against the actual print. Snapshots start April 24, 2026. No historical backfill. No cherry-picking.
Settled / Pending
0 / 6
House wins
0
vs Kalshi 0 (ties 0)
House mean abs error
—
Kalshi mean abs error
—
| Release | For | Released | House | Kalshi | Actual | House err | Kalshi err | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFPLabor | April 2026 | May 08, 2026 | 155k | 72k | pending | — | — | — |
| Unemployment RateLabor | April 2026 | May 08, 2026 | 4.30% | 4.36% | pending | — | — | — |
| ADPLabor | April 2026 | May 06, 2026 | 46k | 87k | pending | — | — | — |
| Core PCEInflation | March 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | 0.305% m/m | 0.265% m/m | pending | — | — | — |
| Weekly ClaimsLabor | Week ending April 25, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | 211,999 | 212,800 | pending | — | — | — |
| Weekly ClaimsLabor | Week ending April 18, 2026 | Apr 23, 2026 | 211,999 | 210,325 | pending | — | — | — |