Core PCE bridge · May 2026 · Updated Thursday, June 25, 2026 01:54 PM ET
CPI/PCE Bridge
Best current bridge estimate from CPI and PPI component data. It re-weights CPI components to PCE scope, adds PCE-only PPI proxies, applies the Fisher formula adjustment, and projects Core PCE y/y from the PCE price index.
Bridge Core PCE m/m
0.352%
35.2 bps · annualized 4.23%
Bridge Core PCE m/m
0.352%
35.2 bps, annualized 4.23%
Core CPI input
0.208%
2.96% y/y
CPI/PCE wedge
+14.4 bps
implied Core PCE less Core CPI
Expected Core PCE y/y
3.42%
FRED API
Largest upward wedge
+32.5 bps
Financial services
Largest downward wedge
-7.7 bps
Shelter re-weighting
Kalshi m/m event
KXPCECORE-26MAY
No live expected value captured for this event.
Waterfall
CPI-to-PCE Wedge
Positive values make implied Core PCE hotter than Core CPI; negative values cool it versus CPI.
Total bridge wedge
Implied Core PCE less Core CPI
+14.4 bps
Shelter re-weighting
Lower PCE shelter weight than CPI
-7.7 bps
Medical scope and weight
Out-of-pocket CPI plus PPI medical proxies
-1.1 bps
Financial services
PCE-only portfolio, banking, and insurance proxies
+32.5 bps
Airfare scope swap
CPI airfares replaced with PPI airline services
-1.3 bps
Food services
Food away from home is inside Core PCE
+2.0 bps
Formula effect
Fisher chain-weighted PCE versus fixed-weight CPI
-3.0 bps
Other residual mapping
Remaining non-shelter, non-medical bridge items
-4.3 bps
Component
Source
m/m
CPI wt
PCE wt
CPI contrib
PCE contrib
Wedge
Rent
shelter
CPI
0.362%
9.67%
4.50%
3.5 bps
1.6 bps
-1.9 bps
OER
shelter
CPI
0.297%
32.98%
13.50%
9.8 bps
4.0 bps
-5.8 bps
Lodging
shelter
CPI
0.418%
1.16%
1.00%
0.5 bps
0.4 bps
-0.1 bps
Used Cars
goods
CPI
0.102%
3.63%
3.20%
0.4 bps
0.3 bps
-0.1 bps
New Vehicles
goods
CPI
-0.258%
4.92%
4.20%
-1.3 bps
-1.1 bps
+0.2 bps
Med Svcs OOP
medical oop
CPI
0.528%
8.95%
4.80%
4.7 bps
2.5 bps
-2.2 bps
Med Goods OOP
medical oop
CPI
-0.712%
2.03%
1.50%
-1.4 bps
-1.1 bps
+0.3 bps
Apparel
goods
CPI
0.292%
3.91%
3.00%
1.1 bps
0.9 bps
-0.2 bps
Recreation
services
CPI
0.287%
7.19%
5.00%
2.1 bps
1.4 bps
-0.7 bps
Edu/Comm
services
CPI
0.752%
7.95%
5.50%
6.0 bps
4.1 bps
-1.9 bps
Airfares CPI
transport
CPI
2.69%
0.83%
-
2.2 bps
0.0 bps
-2.2 bps
Food Svcs
food services
CPI
0.300%
-
6.50%
-
2.0 bps
+2.0 bps
Hospitals
medical nonoop · WPU5111
PPI
0.076%
-
6.00%
-
0.5 bps
+0.5 bps
Physicians
medical nonoop · WPU511101
PPI
0.048%
-
3.50%
-
0.2 bps
+0.2 bps
Nursing
medical nonoop · PCU6231106231101
PPI
0.046%
-
1.00%
-
0.0 bps
+0.0 bps
Home Health
medical nonoop · PCU621610621610
PPI
0.015%
-
0.50%
-
0.0 bps
+0.0 bps
Portfolio Mgmt
financial · WPU402
PPI
4.84%
-
4.50%
-
21.8 bps
+21.8 bps
Banking
financial · WPU4011
PPI
5.36%
-
2.00%
-
10.7 bps
+10.7 bps
Insurance
financial · WPU4031
PPI
0.000%
-
1.50%
-
0.0 bps
+0.0 bps
Airlines PPI
transport · PCU481111481111
PPI
1.12%
-
0.85%
-
1.0 bps
+1.0 bps
Methodology
McCully, Moyer & Stewart (2007), BEA NIPA Ch.5, BLS PCE-CPI Mapping. Formula effect: -3.0 bps.