Core PCE bridge · July 2026 · Updated Friday, August 14, 2026 01:57 PM ET
CPI/PCE Bridge
Best current bridge estimate from CPI and PPI component data. It re-weights CPI components to PCE scope, adds PCE-only PPI proxies, applies the Fisher formula adjustment, and projects Core PCE y/y from the PCE price index.
Bridge Core PCE m/m
0.360%
36.0 bps · annualized 4.32%
Bridge Core PCE m/m
0.360%
36.0 bps, annualized 4.32%
Core CPI input
0.215%
2.79% y/y
CPI/PCE wedge
+14.4 bps
implied Core PCE less Core CPI
Expected Core PCE y/y
3.40%
FRED API
Largest upward wedge
+28.6 bps
Financial services
Largest downward wedge
-6.3 bps
Airfare scope swap
Kalshi m/m event
KXPCECORE-26JUL
No live expected value captured for this event.
Waterfall
CPI-to-PCE Wedge
Positive values make implied Core PCE hotter than Core CPI; negative values cool it versus CPI.
Total bridge wedge
Implied Core PCE less Core CPI
+14.4 bps
Shelter re-weighting
Lower PCE shelter weight than CPI
-5.9 bps
Medical scope and weight
Out-of-pocket CPI plus PPI medical proxies
+1.5 bps
Financial services
PCE-only portfolio, banking, and insurance proxies
+28.6 bps
Airfare scope swap
CPI airfares replaced with PPI airline services
-6.3 bps
Food services
Food away from home is inside Core PCE
+2.0 bps
Formula effect
Fisher chain-weighted PCE versus fixed-weight CPI
-3.0 bps
Other residual mapping
Remaining non-shelter, non-medical bridge items
-0.2 bps
Component
Source
m/m
CPI wt
PCE wt
CPI contrib
PCE contrib
Wedge
Rent
shelter
CPI
0.256%
9.67%
4.50%
2.5 bps
1.2 bps
-1.3 bps
OER
shelter
CPI
0.260%
32.98%
13.50%
8.6 bps
3.5 bps
-5.1 bps
Lodging
shelter
CPI
-2.75%
1.16%
1.00%
-3.2 bps
-2.8 bps
+0.4 bps
Used Cars
goods
CPI
0.398%
3.63%
3.20%
1.4 bps
1.3 bps
-0.1 bps
New Vehicles
goods
CPI
0.078%
4.92%
4.20%
0.4 bps
0.3 bps
-0.1 bps
Med Svcs OOP
medical oop
CPI
0.557%
8.95%
4.80%
5.0 bps
2.7 bps
-2.3 bps
Med Goods OOP
medical oop
CPI
-0.614%
2.03%
1.50%
-1.2 bps
-0.9 bps
+0.3 bps
Apparel
goods
CPI
0.089%
3.91%
3.00%
0.3 bps
0.3 bps
+0.0 bps
Recreation
services
CPI
0.231%
7.19%
5.00%
1.7 bps
1.2 bps
-0.5 bps
Edu/Comm
services
CPI
0.582%
7.95%
5.50%
4.6 bps
3.2 bps
-1.4 bps
Airfares CPI
transport
CPI
2.22%
0.83%
-
1.8 bps
0.0 bps
-1.8 bps
Food Svcs
food services
CPI
0.310%
-
6.50%
-
2.0 bps
+2.0 bps
Portfolio Mgmt
financial · WPU402
PPI
6.46%
-
4.50%
-
29.1 bps
+29.1 bps
Hospitals
medical nonoop · WPU5111
PPI
0.543%
-
6.00%
-
3.3 bps
+3.3 bps
Physicians
medical nonoop · WPU511101
PPI
-0.057%
-
3.50%
-
-0.2 bps
-0.2 bps
Nursing
medical nonoop · PCU6231106231101
PPI
0.422%
-
1.00%
-
0.4 bps
+0.4 bps
Home Health
medical nonoop · PCU621610621610
PPI
0.040%
-
0.50%
-
0.0 bps
+0.0 bps
Banking
financial · WPU4011
PPI
-0.847%
-
2.00%
-
-1.7 bps
-1.7 bps
Insurance
financial · WPU4031
PPI
0.845%
-
1.50%
-
1.3 bps
+1.3 bps
Airlines PPI
transport · PCU481111481111
PPI
-5.26%
-
0.85%
-
-4.5 bps
-4.5 bps
Methodology
McCully, Moyer & Stewart (2007), BEA NIPA Ch.5, BLS PCE-CPI Mapping. Formula effect: -3.0 bps.