Core PCE bridge · August 2026 · Updated Thursday, October 01, 2026 05:45 PM ET
CPI/PCE Bridge
Best current bridge estimate from CPI and PPI component data. It re-weights CPI components to PCE scope, adds PCE-only PPI proxies, applies the Fisher formula adjustment, and projects Core PCE y/y from the PCE price index.
Bridge Core PCE m/m
0.267%
26.7 bps · annualized 3.20%
Bridge Core PCE m/m
0.267%
26.7 bps, annualized 3.20%
Core CPI input
0.290%
2.76% y/y
CPI/PCE wedge
-2.3 bps
implied Core PCE less Core CPI
Expected Core PCE y/y
3.39%
FRED API
Largest upward wedge
+4.9 bps
Medical scope and weight
Largest downward wedge
-4.9 bps
Shelter re-weighting
Kalshi m/m event
KXPCECORE-26AUG
Expected 0.247% · coinflip 0.2%-0.3%
Waterfall
CPI-to-PCE Wedge
Positive values make implied Core PCE hotter than Core CPI; negative values cool it versus CPI.
Total bridge wedge
Implied Core PCE less Core CPI
-2.3 bps
Shelter re-weighting
Lower PCE shelter weight than CPI
-4.9 bps
Medical scope and weight
Out-of-pocket CPI plus PPI medical proxies
+4.9 bps
Financial services
PCE-only portfolio, banking, and insurance proxies
+0.5 bps
Airfare scope swap
CPI airfares replaced with PPI airline services
+0.1 bps
Food services
Food away from home is inside Core PCE
+1.7 bps
Formula effect
Fisher chain-weighted PCE versus fixed-weight CPI
-3.0 bps
Other residual mapping
Remaining non-shelter, non-medical bridge items
+2.7 bps
Component
Source
m/m
CPI wt
PCE wt
CPI contrib
PCE contrib
Wedge
Rent
shelter · CUSR0000SEHA
CPI
0.174%
9.67%
4.50%
1.7 bps
0.8 bps
-0.9 bps
OER
shelter · CUSR0000SEHC
CPI
0.186%
32.98%
13.50%
6.1 bps
2.5 bps
-3.6 bps
Lodging
shelter · CUSR0000SEHB
CPI
2.36%
1.16%
1.00%
2.7 bps
2.4 bps
-0.3 bps
Used Cars
goods · CUSR0000SETA02
CPI
0.365%
3.63%
3.20%
1.3 bps
1.2 bps
-0.1 bps
New Vehicles
goods · CUSR0000SETA01
CPI
0.251%
4.92%
4.20%
1.2 bps
1.1 bps
-0.1 bps
Med Svcs OOP
medical oop · CUSR0000SAM2
CPI
-0.248%
8.95%
4.80%
-2.2 bps
-1.2 bps
+1.0 bps
Med Goods OOP
medical oop · CUSR0000SAM1
CPI
-0.230%
2.03%
1.50%
-0.5 bps
-0.3 bps
+0.2 bps
Apparel
goods · CUSR0000SAA
CPI
0.017%
3.91%
3.00%
0.1 bps
0.1 bps
+0.0 bps
Recreation
services · CUSR0000SAR
CPI
0.004%
7.19%
5.00%
0.0 bps
0.0 bps
+0.0 bps
Edu/Comm
services · CUSR0000SAE
CPI
1.61%
7.95%
5.50%
12.8 bps
8.8 bps
-4.0 bps
Airfares CPI
transport · CUSR0000SETG01
CPI
2.68%
0.83%
-
2.2 bps
0.0 bps
-2.2 bps
Food Svcs
food services · CUSR0000SEFV
CPI
0.254%
-
6.50%
-
1.7 bps
+1.7 bps
Portfolio Mgmt
financial · CES5552390003
CES average hourly earnings forecast
0.333%
-
1.96%
-
0.7 bps
+0.7 bps
Hospitals
medical nonoop · PCU622110622110
PPI STL-SA
0.471%
-
6.00%
-
2.8 bps
+2.8 bps
Physicians
medical nonoop · WPU511101
PPI STL-SA
0.141%
-
3.50%
-
0.5 bps
+0.5 bps
Nursing
medical nonoop · PCU6231106231101
PPI STL-SA
0.341%
-
1.00%
-
0.3 bps
+0.3 bps
Home Health
medical nonoop · PCU621610621610
PPI STL-SA
0.267%
-
0.50%
-
0.1 bps
+0.1 bps
Banking
financial · WPU39
PPI STL-SA
0.000%
-
2.00%
-
0.0 bps
+0.0 bps
Insurance
financial · WPU4111
PPI STL-SA
-0.086%
-
1.50%
-
-0.1 bps
-0.1 bps
Airlines PPI
transport · PCU481111481111
PPI STL-SA
2.71%
-
0.85%
-
2.3 bps
+2.3 bps
Methodology
McCully, Moyer & Stewart (2007), BEA NIPA Ch.5, BLS PCE-CPI Mapping. Formula effect: -3.0 bps.