MacroForecastbyCM: methodology and track-record limits
MacroForecastbyCM is an independent US macroeconomic dashboard. It compares house model forecasts with available Kalshi market consensus and actual releases for Core CPI, Core PCE, payrolls, ADP, unemployment and weekly jobless claims.
Where it fits best
Use it when you want house estimates and prediction-market consensus together, rather than just a calendar of release dates. It is not an official Kalshi product, an investment recommendation or a guarantee of forecast accuracy.
Forecast, consensus and actual are different
- House forecast: the model estimate shown for the reporting period.
- Kalshi consensus: a market-derived estimate when a matching live market is available; absent markets remain labeled as unavailable.
- Latest actual: a reported observation, with its period. It can refer to an older reporting period than the upcoming forecast.
How to assess the public track record
Each row in the public JSON records both a scheduled release time and the time the forecast pair was saved. Compare those timestamps. A saved-before-release row is different from a retrospective reconstruction. The record is maintained by the developer and is not independently audited or cryptographically timestamped.
The page’s snapshot-start label is derived from the earliest stored snapshot time, not the date the page was last rebuilt. Historical claims should be checked against the underlying saved timestamps and independent archives where available.
What the scoreboard measures
A house win means the saved house forecast had a lower absolute error than the saved Kalshi comparison for that row. A tie means the errors were effectively equal. A missing comparison is not a win. Different releases use different units, so a pooled mean absolute error across releases is not a single interpretable accuracy percentage; compare like-for-like releases.
Limits and sources
Forecasts may change, release dates may move, actuals may be revised and some markets may be missing. Check official releases from BLS, BEA, DOL and ADP. Use the displayed reporting period and update time when quoting a number.
Current forecasts · Track record · Timestamped comparison data · Current forecast data · How to read the table